No, NZ isn’t joining the European Union – and neither is Canada

Analysis: Something has been lost in translation.

It started, as everything does, with good intentions. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen wanted to give Canada the warmest welcome possible as they began new trade discussions. Then it spiralled out of control, to the point where New Zealanders are now seriously discussing the merits of becoming the next member of the European Union from 19,000km away.

It’s a romantic thought, invoking the possibility of drinking burned espresso in a walkable neighbourhood while taking a two-hour lunch break. But it’s not happening. New Zealand is not joining the European Union, and neither is Canada. Something has been lost in translation.

The trouble began when von der Leyen said she wanted to open the door to Canada becoming the EU’s first “associate member”. This apparently came as a surprise to other member states – and potentially to Canada itself, which hadn’t really asked to become one. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney distanced himself from the title, complimenting Europe on its “ambition” but referring to the proposed partnership as an “alliance” instead.

New Zealand and Australia then got caught up in the confusion after another top EU official cited them as examples of countries wanting to “deepen their relationship” with Europe. This resulted in an Euronews story, “Australia and New Zealand could follow Canada into associated EU membership,” and another gentle rejection. 

Foreign minister Winston Peters was polite but direct in his response, saying there had not been any discussions about becoming an associate member. But honestly, who hasn’t blurted out something like “I love you” on a first date? If you have, you might know the look of confusion turning to pity, followed by the response: “Ahh, thanks…”

That’s roughly what happened here. The European Union meant to say, “It’s been great getting to know you, I’d love to grab another drink some time,” but instead said, “Let’s have three children and a summer wedding in Martinborough.”

While membership is not a serious suggestion, it should be encouraging that Europe thinks of us so warmly. New Zealand, Canada and Europe all want to build stronger ties with reliable friends in a world where there are fewer of them.

Canada had been happily almost married to the United States for almost a century until Donald Trump came along. Now, it wants a situationship with Europe and made its first official visit to China in a decade – sort of the diplomatic equivalent of getting coffee with your ex’s ex to make them jealous.

At the heart of all this is an effort to protect national sovereignty. Small countries want to be free to make their own decisions, while some superpowers are increasingly expecting them to do what they are told. The EU is not itself a superpower, but it has a larger population than the US and a bigger nominal GDP than China. This makes it a natural rallying point for a group of smaller democracies hoping to avoid superpower bullying.

Actual membership of the European Union, if it were offered, would be politically unappealing to New Zealand and Canada, as it would require giving up some sovereignty to lawmakers in Brussels. This was a major reason the UK voted for Brexit in 2016.

But there are many opportunities to collaborate more closely. Canada has said it wants an integrated financial market, better visa access for young people, and strategic deals on energy, natural resources, AI and defence. New Zealand could be interested in a similar set of things. Whatever these future alliances look like, it is a good sign that we are part of the conversation.