Campaign update: Labour’s books, Greens’ fares, Act’s KiwiSavings and a one-name list
What time is it? Campaign time!
Labour has released its first full fiscal plan of the campaign and it’s pretty close to National’s; the Greens have promised $2 fares and free public transport for some; Act takes tax off KiwiSaver; and Te Pāti Māori doubles down on strategic voting, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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Labour: Same same but different
Labour has released its fiscal plan, all aimed at reaching surplus in 2028/29 – the same year as National – with a slightly smaller surplus that year ($2bn against National’s $2.1bn). Core crown expenses would be 30.4% of GDP in 2030/31, against National's 29.8%, and net debt $876m higher.
The Post’s Henry Cooke reports the party has costed only one pay equity settlement: $2.5bn for a 2027 pay rise for care and support workers, and only an interim one. Future payments would come from $10.5bn in unallocated operating expenditure headroom, with no ring-fenced fund. Treasury said in 2025 that cancelling pay equity saved $12.8bn over four years.
The plan separates out $13bn for health cost pressures, reverses what Labour calls “tax cuts for tobacco companies,” and won't cancel some public service cuts already under way. It does not include the fuel tax freeze, the public transport fare cap, or a line for hiring every nurse graduate. National’s Nicola Willis called it “fraud” and “the least credible fiscal plan released by a major party in living memory.”
Yesterday evening, The Herald’s Jamie Ensor found an error page where Labour’s August fiscal strategy had been, after the party changed its language from spending and revenue “maintained at around 33%” to “below 33%.” Labour said the wording had been made “clearer” because it was being reported as a target rather than a ceiling. Willis’s response: “These are not serious people.”
Greens: $2 fares and mass transit
The Greens’ newly released policy is to make public transport free for children, students, apprentices, community services card holders and total mobility users, with a $2 cap for everyone else, RNZ’s Lauren Crimp reports.
The plan includes mass rapid transit in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, overnight passenger trains between Auckland and Wellington, the return of the Southerner, and extending Te Huia to Tauranga. Total cost: about $24bn, including $21bn for mass transit and rail. Swarbrick cited the party’s wealth tax as a funding source, with a full fiscal plan to come.
Act: No tax on KiwiSaver, no Government contributions
Act has pledged to remove tax on KiwiSaver earnings and scrap Government contributions, 1News reports. David Seymour said returns would “stay invested and generate savings for generations to come,” claiming the change could double savings for some workers.
The party would end Government contributions, with accounts instead receiving a “new tax treatment.” Seymour framed it as shifting power from Wellington “back to you, your family, and your business,” and took a swipe at rivals: “Other parties want to force your money into KiwiSaver, then tax you.”
The Spinoff's Hayden Donnell, who was at the party’s campaign launch, notes the irony – Act is now enhancing a policy it once called “the most expensive way ever invented to give every worker $1,000.” Seymour sidestepped the contradiction: “We hate tax and will do anything to reduce tax.”
Donnell describes the launch at a Penrose industrial shed as a literal echo chamber, with a hangar-sized room about 10% full and every sound reverberating off stainless steel walls. “Asked about the echoey room, he had a quip ready to go. ‘Some people don't even want to hear me once. Other people want to hear me twice,’ he said. Pressed further, he let loose another zinger. ‘I've been told in politics by some of my old mentors that repetition is critical in political communication, and I think we've achieved that here today.’”
Te Pāti Māori: A list of one
Stuff’s Emma Ricketts reports that Te Pāti Māori has released a party list with just one candidate beyond its seven electorate contenders: general secretary Lance Norman. “This list proves we are putting our money where our mouth is,” co-leader Rawiri Waititi said. The party is asking supporters to give their electorate vote to Te Pāti Māori and their party vote to Labour or the Greens.
A Horizon Research poll of 607 Māori roll voters found the Greens on 28%, Labour on 27%, Te Pāti Māori on 16% and Opportunity on 6%. The party’s support among Māori roll voters is up 17 points since 2023.
Going deep on Luxon
And, not news per se, but this morning (on our brand new website – see below) our editor Veronica Schmidt has published the first in a series of in-depth profiles of the leaders of the most prominent parties, each by one of The Spinoff’s wonderful writers, all published in the lead-up to the election. Take the time to read the whole thing, but here’s a teaser:
He makes his way around the guests (one stuffs an Air NZ lanyard into her bag as she arrives), touching upper arms on approach, or hugging or handshaking. That upper row of perfect teeth are on show as he laughs. He looks assured, relaxed, cheerful.
And then he doesn’t. It’s like watching a switch flick. He leaves the guests inside to mingle beside the sushi and mini croissants, and assembles shoulder-to-shoulder with Nicola Willis, Louise Upston and Chris Bishop on the bar’s balcony to take reporters’ questions. It’s almost as though he leaves himself inside too. The warmth drains away, his jaw hardens and as the cameras start recording, his speech finds those well-worn grooves. “Can I just be really honest with you?” “I just say to you…” And yes, “What I would say to you is…”
Henry Oliver
Henry Oliver writes The Bulletin. He was previously The Spinoff's music editor, the editor of Metro, a bar owner, intellectual property lawyer, and bass player.
